Books like A Brief History of the Future: A Brave and Controversial Look at the Twenty-First Century

Very interesting review of history. The premise is that human civilization continues to march toward greater openness in market/capitalism and in freedom. With the rise of the renaissance, there have been a rise and fall of leading cities in this area. As one falters, another rises - Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amserdam, London, Boston, New York, and LA. Much of this is based on Turner's work on Great Cities - must be centers of trade, be innovators, and welcome immigrants. With this history in place, what happens in the future? What will be the next center of innovation? He reviews the leading candidates and discounts them all - China - will be splintered by different ethnicities and still has far to go with GDP growth to catch up with the west (same as Z. Farrad's book Post-American Century.) Japan is not open to immigation and had its opportunity in the 1980s and did not ascend. India - still not much of a market (too much government control). Europe is not an innovator or strong growth. Australia is very innovative and open to immigration, but too small at 6M citizens. Texas and San Jose are options. The next city to ascend will probably be virtual. In the future, creative work will rule the economy. However, the USA will start to falter, but not fall. Taxes, defense budgets, and CO2 will cause America to lose its sole role as Superpower. But a lot of chaos in the future - rise of pirates (he includes terrorists as pirates), more failed states, more mercenaries, less regular armies. He predicts more wars that lead to a pan-global government. I like the whole book, but the author lost me at the end - way too European for my American outlook on the world. I do not share his optimism on our ability to have a global government - but I do see a much higher acceptance of this as I look at younger generations.